A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
