Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
